Maximum likelihood estimation for the generalized Pareto distribution

Numerical optimization of the generalized Pareto distribution for data exceeding threshold. This function returns an object of class mev_gpd, with default methods for printing and quantile-quantile plots.

Usage

fit.gpd(
  xdat,
  threshold = 0,
  method = "Grimshaw",
  show = FALSE,
  MCMC = NULL,
  k = 4,
  tol = 1e-08,
  fpar = NULL,
  warnSE = FALSE
)

Arguments

xdat: a numeric vector of data to be fitted.
threshold: the chosen threshold.
method: the method to be used. See Details. Can be abbreviated.
show: logical; if TRUE (the default), print details of the fit.
MCMC: NULL for frequentist estimates, otherwise a boolean or a list with parameters passed. If TRUE, runs a Metropolis-Hastings sampler to get posterior mean estimates. Can be used to pass arguments niter, burnin and thin to the sampler as a list.
k: bound on the influence function (method = "obre"); the constant k is a robustness parameter (higher bounds are more efficient, low bounds are more robust). Default to 4, must be larger than \(\sqrt{2}\).
tol: numerical tolerance for OBRE weights iterations (method = "obre"). Default to 1e-8.
fpar: a named list with fixed parameters, either scale or shape
warnSE: logical; if TRUE, a warning is printed if the standard errors cannot be returned from the observed information matrix when the shape is less than -0.5.

Value

If method is neither 'zs' nor 'zhang', a list containing the following components:

estimate a vector containing the scale and shape parameters (optimized and fixed).
std.err a vector containing the standard errors. For method = "obre", these are Huber's robust standard errors.
vcov the variance covariance matrix, obtained as the numerical inverse of the observed information matrix. For method = "obre", this is the sandwich Godambe matrix inverse.
threshold the threshold.
method the method used to fit the parameter. See details.
nllh the negative log-likelihood evaluated at the parameter estimate.
nat number of points lying above the threshold.
pat proportion of points lying above the threshold.
convergence components taken from the list returned by optim. Values other than 0 indicate that the algorithm likely did not converge (in particular 1 and 50).
counts components taken from the list returned by optim.
exceedances excess over the threshold.

Additionally, if method = "obre", a vector of OBRE weights.

Otherwise, a list containing

threshold the threshold.
method the method used to fit the parameter. See Details.
nat number of points lying above the threshold.
pat proportion of points lying above the threshold.
approx.mean a vector containing containing the approximate posterior mean estimates.

and in addition if MCMC is neither FALSE, nor NULL

post.mean a vector containing the posterior mean estimates.
post.se a vector containing the posterior standard error estimates.
accept.rate proportion of points lying above the threshold.
niter length of resulting Markov Chain
burnin amount of discarded iterations at start, capped at 10000.
thin thinning integer parameter describing

Details

The default method is 'Grimshaw', which maximizes the profile likelihood for the ratio scale/shape. Other options include 'obre' for optimal \(B\)-robust estimator of the parameter of Dupuis (1998), vanilla maximization of the log-likelihood using constrained optimization routine 'auglag', 1-dimensional optimization of the profile likelihood using nlm and optim. Method 'ismev' performs the two-dimensional optimization routine gpd.fit from the ismev library, with in addition the algebraic gradient. The approximate Bayesian methods ('zs' and 'zhang') are extracted respectively from Zhang and Stephens (2009) and Zhang (2010) and consists of a approximate posterior mean calculated via importance sampling assuming a GPD prior is placed on the parameter of the profile likelihood.

Note

Some of the internal functions (which are hidden from the user) allow for modelling of the parameters using covariates. This is not currently implemented within gp.fit, but users can call internal functions should they wish to use these features.

References

Davison, A.C. (1984). Modelling excesses over high thresholds, with an application, in Statistical extremes and applications, J. Tiago de Oliveira (editor), D. Reidel Publishing Co., 461--482.

Grimshaw, S.D. (1993). Computing Maximum Likelihood Estimates for the Generalized Pareto Distribution, Technometrics, 35(2), 185--191.

Northrop, P.J. and C. L. Coleman (2014). Improved threshold diagnostic plots for extreme value analyses, Extremes, 17(2), 289--303.

Zhang, J. (2010). Improving on estimation for the generalized Pareto distribution, Technometrics 52(3), 335--339.

Zhang, J. and M. A. Stephens (2009). A new and efficient estimation method for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 51(3), 316--325.

Dupuis, D.J. (1998). Exceedances over High Thresholds: A Guide to Threshold Selection, Extremes, 1(3), 251--261.

Author

Scott D. Grimshaw for the Grimshaw option. Paul J. Northrop and Claire L. Coleman for the methods optim, nlm and ismev. J. Zhang and Michael A. Stephens (2009) and Zhang (2010) for the zs and zhang approximate methods and L. Belzile for methods auglag and obre, the wrapper and MCMC samplers.

If show = TRUE, the optimal \(B\) robust estimated weights for the largest observations are printed alongside with the \(p\)-value of the latter, obtained from the empirical distribution of the weights. This diagnostic can be used to guide threshold selection: small weights for the \(r\)-largest order statistics indicate that the robust fit is driven by the lower tail and that the threshold should perhaps be increased.

Examples

data(eskrain)
fit.gpd(eskrain, threshold = 35, method = 'Grimshaw', show = TRUE)
#> Method: Grimshaw 
#> Log-likelihood: -174.3083 
#> 
#> Threshold: 35 
#> Number Above: 54 
#> Proportion Above: 0.5806 
#> 
#> Estimates
#>   scale    shape  
#> 9.18077  0.01082  
#> 
#> Standard Errors
#>  scale   shape  
#> 1.6187  0.1121  
#> 
#> Optimization Information
#>   Convergence: successful 
fit.gpd(eskrain, threshold = 30, method = 'zs', show = TRUE)
#> 
#> Method: Zhang and Stephens 
#> 
#> Threshold: 30 
#> Number Above: 93 
#> Proportion Above: 1 
#> 
#> Approximate posterior mean estimates
#>  scale   shape  
#> 8.9444  0.0422